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Mon, 12 May 2014 - Meteors from comet 209P : David Asher predictions

As you may be aware, there are predictions that significant meteor activity may be seen from North America on the morning of May 24th 2014 when the Earth is due to pass close to the orbit of comet 209P/LINEAR less than 48 hours after the comet has passed by.

There are also some misleading news stories going around on the internet and via social media that suggest that a meteor storm will occur and that it will be visible from the UK. In reality, little will be seen from the UK because the activity is predicted to last for a few hours at most and be centred at around 07h GMT (8am BST) when it is obviously daylight in the UK.

It is also considered to be very unlikely that the rates seen from North America will reach storm level (ZHR > 1000). A more likely scenario is that peak rates could be comparable with those seen during August's Perseid meteor shower, but with peak activity levels only being maintained for less than 10 minutes.

Additional information can be found at http://www.popastro.com/meteor/activity/activity.php?id_pag=314

Former SPA Meteor Section Director Rob McNaught has produced a powerpoint presentation that gives more background on this potential meteor shower and details David Asher's predictions for the time of any activity peaks. This can be downloaded from : http://www.theastronomer.org/agm2014/209Pmeteors-show-20140509.pps

A key point to note, however, is that those dust trails that will come closest from the Earth were ejected over a century before the comet was discovered and therefore we have no knowledge as to how active or inactive the comet might have been at that time

Below is the page from the presentation that highlights a 22 revolution trail that is predicted to intersect the Earth close to 07h GMT

 

Added by: Tracie Heywood